NCAA tournament bracketology: Memphis back in the hunt
Even in February, one victory can make a world of difference.
Memphis might turn out to be this year’s proof of it.
The Tigers’ twisty season added another turn Saturday with a 69-59 victory at Houston. It was the fifth victory in a row for Penny Hardaway’s team, which has surged back into NCAA tournament contention after largely falling off the radar for the past month.
This is the same Memphis team that began the year with buzz, coming off an NIT championship while adding freshmen Emoni Bates and Jalen Duren in late-summer recruiting coups.
But things weren’t so easy, especially for a team relying on youth in a year when so many fifth- and sixth-year seniors are floating around. The Tigers lost four in a row in nonconference play, then picked off Alabama. There were also losses in league play at Tulane, Central Florida and East Carolina, and a Jan. 20 setback against SMU dropped Memphis to 9-8.
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Yet after fending off Tulsa, the Tigers paid back East Carolina, Central Florida and Tulane at home before dispatching Houston. The latter victory propelled Memphis (14-8, 8-4 American) into this week’s Washington Post field-of-68 projection.
It’s still not a perfect team. Memphis doesn’t value the ball (351st nationally in turnover percentage, according to KenPom.com) but is exceptional at crashing the offensive glass and getting to the foul line. The Tigers aren’t as good on the defensive end as they were in the previous two years, but the offensive improvement makes up for some of it.
Landing a double-digit seed isn’t what Memphis had in mind at the start of the season, and there are only so many opportunities remaining to improve its résumé. Nonetheless, the Tigers are back in the postseason hunt, and that wasn’t easy to see coming four weeks ago.
Field notes
Last four included: San Francisco, North Carolina, San Diego State, Florida
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First four on the outside: Indiana, Belmont, SMU, VCU
Next four on the outside: Oklahoma, Rutgers, Michigan, Kansas State
Moving in: Long Beach State, Memphis, North Carolina, Oakland, Toledo
Moving out: Belmont, Cal State Fullerton, Cleveland State, Indiana, Ohio
Conference call: Big East (7), Southeastern (7), Big Ten (6), Big 12 (6), Atlantic Coast (5), Pac-12 (4), Mountain West (4), West Coast (4), American Athletic (2)
Bracket projection
West vs. East; Midwest vs. South
West Region
Portland, Ore.
(1) WEST COAST/Gonzaga vs. (16) SUN BELT/Texas State
(8) Colorado State vs. (9) Seton Hall
Greenville, S.C.
(5) Texas vs. (12) SOUTHERN/Chattanooga
(4) Tennessee vs. (13) MID-AMERICAN/Toledo
(3) BIG TEN/Illinois vs. (14) HORIZON/Oakland
(6) Alabama vs. (11) MISSOURI VALLEY/Loyola Chicago
Pittsburgh
(7) Xavier vs. (10) ATLANTIC 10/Davidson
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(2) ATLANTIC COAST/Duke vs. (15) BIG SOUTH/Longwood
With Auburn losing last week, Gonzaga reassumes the role of the top overall seed. The Zags could have as many as four Quadrant 1 games left before Selection Sunday — trips to San Francisco and Saint Mary’s next week and two games in the WCC tournament. … Seton Hall has probably played its way back to simply not needing to mess up to wind up in the field. The Pirates do have ample opportunities to mess up, though, with home games against Butler, DePaul and Georgetown to come. Win all three and avoid a silly loss in the Big East tournament, and they should wind up in decent shape. …
Loyola Chicago lost a third game in league play last week, falling to Bradley. The Ramblers are getting close to having little margin for error when it comes to at-large hopes. … Duke has been sent to Pittsburgh before (admittedly when North Carolina and Virginia were in Charlotte), and the Steel City is closer to the ample portion of the Blue Devils’ fan base in the Northeast. Consider this one way the committee could free up things for SEC teams that manage to land a top-four seed (such as Auburn, Tennessee and perhaps Alabama) to wind up in Greenville, S.C., the first weekend.
East Region
Fort Worth, Texas
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(1) BIG 12/Kansas vs. (16) SOUTHLAND/New Orleans-SWAC/Southern winner
(8) OHIO VALLEY/Murray State vs. (9) Boise State
San Diego, Calif.
(5) Ohio State vs. (12) North Carolina-San Francisco winner
(4) UCLA vs. (13) WESTERN ATHLETIC/New Mexico State
Pittsburgh
(3) Villanova vs. (14) ATLANTIC SUN/Liberty
(6) LSU vs. (11) Oregon
Indianapolis
(7) Saint Mary’s vs. (10) Creighton
(2) Purdue vs. (15) PATRIOT/Colgate
Kansas has eight Quadrant 1 victories entering the week, good for second most in the NCAA. Baylor, which the Jayhawks thumped at home this month, has nine. … After losing three of four on a road trip, UCLA gets three games in five days at home starting Thursday against Washington State. It’s a chance for the Bruins to stabilize before three road games at the end of the month. …
Oregon continues to live off its road sweep of UCLA and Southern California last month. The Ducks can only do that for so long with the list of odd home losses (Arizona State, Colorado and California) continuing to grow. … Creighton is in the midst of a better-not-lose sequence — Butler, Georgetown twice in three days and then DePaul on Thursday before a challenging closing stretch to the regular season.
Midwest Region
Greenville, S.C.
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(1) SOUTHEASTERN/Auburn vs. (16) BIG WEST/Long Beach State-COLONIAL/UNC Wilmington winner
(8) Iowa vs. (9) TCU
(5) Southern California vs. (12) CONFERENCE/North Texas
(4) BIG EAST/Providence vs. (13) SUMMIT/South Dakota State
(3) Wisconsin vs. (14) NORTHEAST/Wagner
(6) Connecticut vs. (11) Memphis
Fort Worth, Texas
(7) Arkansas vs. (10) Notre Dame
(2) Baylor vs. (15) IVY/Yale
Iowa is No. 19 in the NET but doesn’t have a Quadrant 1 victory. What’s propping up the Hawkeyes? When they win, they win big. Only two of Iowa’s 17 victories have come by less than nine points (a 75-74 triumph at Virginia and an 80-75 win at home over Maryland). … It took until Feb. 12, but Southern California finally has a victory over a team it can rest easy knowing will be in the NCAA tournament field after toppling UCLA on Saturday. The Trojans’ next-most-valuable victories in the quadrant system are at Washington State; against San Diego State in Anaheim, Calif.; and at Colorado. …
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Long Beach State (14-9) has rattled off 10 consecutive victories to take the lead in the Big West. Former Gonzaga and Minnesota coach Dan Monson has the 49ers in contention for their first NCAA berth since 2012. … It would be funny if Connecticut got paired with a former American Athletic foe just a few years after leaving the league to rejoin the Big East. For what it’s worth, the Huskies lost four of their last five to Memphis while in the AAC. … With its upset of Auburn last week, Arkansas is at the point where it simply has to avoid a free fall to make the tournament.
South Region
(1) PAC-12/Arizona vs. (16) MID-EASTERN ATHLETIC/Norfolk State
(8) Iowa State vs. (9) Wake Forest
(5) Michigan State vs. (12) Florida/San Diego State winner
(4) AMERICAN ATHLETIC/Houston vs. (13) METRO ATLANTIC/Iona
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Portland, Ore.
(3) Texas Tech vs. (14) AMERICA EAST/Vermont
(6) Marquette vs. (11) Miami
Indianapolis
(7) MOUNTAIN WEST/Wyoming vs. (10) BYU
(2) Kentucky vs. (15) BIG SKY/Montana State
Iowa State has followed up its 12-0 start with nine losses in its past 13 outings. The Cyclones are 7-7 in Quadrant 1 games, so they still have plenty of wiggle room. Nonetheless, they have work to do over the next month to feel comfortable on Selection Sunday. … Florida lost by 21 at Kentucky on Saturday, but it is set up for a strong finishing push. In addition to getting Arkansas, Auburn and Kentucky at home, the Gators get manageable road games against Georgia, Texas A&M and Vanderbilt. Of course, they’ll only prove manageable if Florida actually wins them. … Houston’s metrics held up well after back-to-back losses to SMU and Memphis last week. The Cougars will see both of those teams again late in the season.
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Bracketing issue No. 1: Marquette was originally the No. 6 seed in the Midwest but had to switch regions with Connecticut to avoid playing on its home court in Milwaukee. … Bracketing issue No. 2: BYU and Seton Hall swapped seeds to allow the Cougars to be placed at a Thursday/Saturday site in the South. BYU school policy forbids games on Sundays, so the Cougars will wind up in either the West or South regions this season.
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